Forecasting

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Question 1
Free
Multiple Choice

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for

Choose correct answer/s
A

aggregate planning.

B

scheduling.

C

process design.

D

inventory management.

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Question 2
Free
Multiple Choice

A regression model is an example of which type of forecasting method?

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A

Causal

B

Historical analogy

C

Qualitative

D

Life cycle analogy

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Question 3
Free
Multiple Choice

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

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A

When historic data are unreliable.

B

When it is impossible to obtain historic data.

C

For short-range, repetitive decisions.

D

When making major costly decisions, such as facilities location.

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Question 4
Free
Multiple Choice

A small company that manufactures rubber boots is selecting a method to forecast demand for the next 10 years.The company recently expanded its facilities,doubling its capacity.Which of the following forecasting methods would be preferred?

Choose correct answer/s
A

Qualitative

B

Simple exponential smoothing

C

Econometric

D

Box-Jenkins

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Question 5
Free
Multiple Choice

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered

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A

a forecast.

B

a performance measure.

C

a goal.

D

a production plan.

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Question 6
Multiple Choice

Given the following weekly demand figures, image using a three-week moving average,what is your forecast for week 6?

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A
30
B
36.7
C
32.5
D
25
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Question 7
Multiple Choice

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 2?
(Use F1 = 25 and alpha = 0.2.)

Choose correct answer/s
A
21
B
24
C
32
D
53
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Question 8
Multiple Choice

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6?
(Use F5 = 33 and alpha = 0.0.)

Choose correct answer/s
A
33
B
31.7
C
30
D
20
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Question 9
Multiple Choice

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16?
Demand = 120
Forecast = 180
MAD15 = 50
Alpha = 0.3

Choose correct answer/s
A
77
B
53
C
17
D
43
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Question 10
Multiple Choice

The Grand Bakery produces 60 special sourdough rolls every day.Any rolls that are not sold each day are given to the employees.The bakery collected sales data from the past week: image What is the value of F6 if the bakery uses a 3-day weighted moving average with W1 = 0.6,W2 = 0.2,and W3 = 0.2?

Choose correct answer/s
A
51.4
B
53.4
C
58.6
D
None of the above
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Question 11
Multiple Choice

Using the data from Question 11,calculate the forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

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A
60
B
43.25
C
57.75
D
55.25
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Question 12
Multiple Choice

Which of the following is NOT a measure of forecast accuracy?

Choose correct answer/s
A
Mean square error.
B
Cumulative sum of forecast error.
C
Mean absolute deviation of forecast error.
D
Cumulative absolute deviation of forecast error.
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Question 13
Multiple Choice

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique?

Choose correct answer/s
A
Consumer survey.
B
Individual opinions.
C
Rounds of anonymous data collection.
D
Test markets.
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Question 14
Multiple Choice

Using exponential smoothing,if we want forecasts to be very responsive to recent demand,the value of alpha should be

Choose correct answer/s
A
large.
B
moderate.
C
small.
D
The value of alpha does not matter.
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Question 15
Multiple Choice

If one time series model is used for forecasting a low-demand item and another time series model is used for forecasting a high-demand item,which measure of forecast accuracy provides a valid comparison of the errors from these two time series?

Choose correct answer/s
A
CFE
B
MSE
C
MAD
D
MAPE
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Question 16
Multiple Choice

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called

Choose correct answer/s
A
regression.
B
econometric model.
C
input-output model.
D
simulation model.
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Question 17
Multiple Choice

Which of the following is NOT one of the most important factors in selecting a forecasting method?

Choose correct answer/s
A
Nature of the decision.
B
Patterns seen in the data.
C
Data availability.
D
Customer preferences.
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Question 18
Multiple Choice

_____ models are usually more accurate than ______ models for medium-to-long-range forecasts.

Choose correct answer/s
A
Time series, causal
B
Causal, time series
C
Time series, qualitative
D
Qualitative, time series
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Question 19
Multiple Choice

Given the following weekly demand figures,what is the MAD at the end of week 5?
image

Choose correct answer/s
A
10.8
B
11.8
C
12.0
D
13.0
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Question 20
Multiple Choice

Which of the following statements about forecasting is NOT correct?

Choose correct answer/s
A
Forecasts should have at least two numbers: one for the best estimate of demand and the other a measurement of forecasting error.
B
There is no universal forecasting method for all situations.
C
Forecasts of sales and demand will always be equal.
D
Forecasting is both an art and a science.
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