Judgment, Decisions, And Reasoning

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Question 1
Free
Multiple Choice

Making probable conclusions based on evidence involves _________________ reasoning.

Choose correct answer/s
A

deductive

B

syllogistic

C

inductive

D

connective

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Question 2
Free
Multiple Choice

Consider the following argument:
Observation: Here in Nashville, the sun has risen every morning. Conclusion: The sun is going to rise in Nashville tomorrow.

Choose correct answer/s
A

The argument is weak because there is only one specific case.

B

The argument is strong because the premise includes scientific evidence.

C

The argument is weak because the observation does not consider other cities.

D

The argument is strong because there are a large number of observations.

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Question 3
Free
Multiple Choice

At a lunch meeting with a client, the CEO of Gossip Polls, Inc., was asked to determine America's favorite day of the week. Hundreds of Gossip employees across the U.S. started collecting data immediately, calling people at their residences. One hour later, the attitudes from 10,000 Americans, across all 50 states, were collected. A staff member called the CEO, still at her lunch meeting, to tell her the results of the poll: America's favorite day of the week is Monday. Given your text's discussion of inductive reasoning in science, we might suspect that the observations in this poll are not representative because

Choose correct answer/s
A

the participants were only asked one question for this poll.

B

the participants were not sufficiently geographically diverse.

C

the people who are home to answer the phone in the early afternoon are not an appropriate cross-section of the U.S. population.

D

everyone in America was not asked their opinion.

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Question 4
Free
Multiple Choice

Bonnie has ordered her monthly supply of medicines through the mail for the past five years. Except for one order, all orders have arrived within two business days. Bonnie placed an order yesterday, and she expects to receive her order tomorrow. Bonnie is using

Choose correct answer/s
A

an omission bias.

B

inductive reasoning.

C

the conjunction rule.

D

the similarity-coverage model.

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Question 5
Free
Multiple Choice

Donte purchased a new car, a Ford Mustang, less than a month ago. While sitting in traffic, Donte says to his girlfriend, "Mustangs must be the best-selling car now. I can't remember seeing as many on the road as I have recently." Donte's judgment is most likely biased by a(n)

Choose correct answer/s
A

representativeness heuristic.

B

availability heuristic.

C

illusory correlation.

D

permission schema.

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Question 6
Multiple Choice

Wally and Shamika are out on a date. When Shamika asks where they should go for dinner, Wally says, "My coworkers keep telling me about that new Japanese place downtown, so it must be a great place to eat." Wally's response illustrates the use of a(n)

Choose correct answer/s
A
availability heuristic.
B
confirmation bias.
C
conjunction rule.
D
permission schema.
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Question 7
Multiple Choice

The finding that people tend to incorrectly conclude that more people die from tornados than from asthma has been explained in terms of the

Choose correct answer/s
A
representativeness heuristic.
B
availability heuristic.
C
falsification principle.
D
belief bias.
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Question 8
Multiple Choice

Mia has lived in New York City all her life. She has noticed that people from upper Manhattan walk really fast, but people from lower Manhattan tend to walk slowly. Mia's observations are likely influenced from a judgment error based on her using

Choose correct answer/s
A
the law of large numbers.
B
an atmosphere effect.
C
an illusory correlation.
D
the falsification principle.
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Question 9
Multiple Choice

Tuan bought a new leather jacket after saving for many months for the luxury purchase. On the first day he went out wearing the new garment, he found a $50 bill on the sidewalk outside of his office. He now refers to the jacket as his "lucky jacket" and believes that it has some magical power to give him good fortune. Tuan's belief in the jacket's cosmic ability is an example of

Choose correct answer/s
A
the availability heuristic.
B
an illusory correlation.
C
selective attention.
D
the falsification principle.
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Question 10
Multiple Choice

Stereotypes are reinforced by all of the following EXCEPT

Choose correct answer/s
A
the availability heuristic.
B
illusory correlations.
C
selective attention.
D
the falsification principle.
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Question 11
Multiple Choice

Gabrielle is blonde, extremely attractive, and lives in an expensive condo. If we judge the probability of Gabrielle's being a model quite high because she resembles our stereotype of a model, we are using

Choose correct answer/s
A
the representativeness heuristic.
B
the availability heuristic.
C
framing.
D
the law of small numbers.
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Question 12
Multiple Choice

One hundred students are enrolled in State University's course on introductory physics for math and science majors. In the group, 60 students are math majors and 40 are science majors. Sarah is in the class. She got all As in her high school science courses, and she would like to be a chemist someday. She lives on campus. Her boyfriend is also in the class. There is a _________________ chance that Sarah is a science major.

Choose correct answer/s
A
40 percent
B
50 percent
C
60 percent
D
100 percent
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Question 13
Multiple Choice

Lydia is 48 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy as an undergraduate. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and she participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which of the following alternatives is most probable?

Choose correct answer/s
A
Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman.
B
Lydia is a U.S. Congresswoman and active in the feminist movement.
C
Lydia is a state governor.
D
Lydia is a state governor and active in the feminist movement.
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Question 14
Multiple Choice

The conjunction rule states that

Choose correct answer/s
A
the probability of two events co-occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each event occurring.
B
the probability of two events co-occurring is equal to or less than the probability of either event occurring alone.
C
people make decisions based upon both the costs and benefits of the choices.
D
people make decisions based upon possible benefits when the choices are framed positively and based upon possible costs when the choices are framed negatively.
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Question 15
Multiple Choice

Imagine that your friend James has just taken up the habit of smoking cigars because he thinks it makes him look cool. You are concerned about the detrimental effects of smoking on his health, and you raise that concern to him. James gets a bit annoyed with your criticism and says, "My grandfather smoked cigars, and he lived to be 100!" You might point out that a major problem with his argument involves

Choose correct answer/s
A
framing.
B
the conjunction rule.
C
sample size.
D
none of these
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Question 16
Multiple Choice

There are two gumball machines outside the local grocery store, one large machine and one small machine. Both machines have only yellow and orange gumballs, and each machine contains 50 percent of each color. For each coin, the large gumball machine dispenses 15 gumballs, while the small machine dispenses 5. Tim is a young genius whose interests include probability and sound decision-making. His "probability project of the day" is to get a greater percentage of either of the colors, but not an equal amount of each color. Given this, and presuming Tim has only one coin,

Choose correct answer/s
A
he should use his coin in the large machine.
B
he should use his coin in the small machine.
C
it doesn't make a difference which machine he uses.
D
he should wait for other people to use the machines and see what they get.
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Question 17
Multiple Choice

Failing to consider the law of large numbers most likely results in errors concerning

Choose correct answer/s
A
confirmation bias.
B
utility.
C
the falsification principle.
D
the representativeness heuristic.
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Question 18
Multiple Choice

Of the following real-world phenomena, the confirmation bias best explains the observation that people

Choose correct answer/s
A
do not always make decisions that maximize their monetary outcome.
B
are more likely to purchase meat advertised as 80 percent fat free than 20 percent fat.
C
misjudge homicide as more prevalent in the U.S. than suicide.
D
can cite several reasons for their position on a controversial issue but none for the opposing side.
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Question 19
Multiple Choice

If a motorcycle cop believes that young female drivers speed more than other drivers, he will likely notice young female drivers speeding in the fast lane but fail to notice young male or older drivers doing the same. In this case, the police officer's judgments are skewed by the operation of the

Choose correct answer/s
A
permission schema.
B
confirmation bias.
C
falsification principle.
D
typicality principle.
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Question 20
Multiple Choice

Terrell volunteers his time to campaign for Joel Goodman. He spent all afternoon putting up "Goodman for Congress" signs around his town and arrived back at headquarters just in time to watch the Goodman- Hernandez debate on TV. Terrell was eager to watch the candidates debate each other, even though he was 100 percent sure he was going to vote for Goodman. Terrell's first response to the debate will most likely be

Choose correct answer/s
A
"I noticed that Goodman and Hernandez agreed on the new environmental policy."
B
"Goodman answered the question on job creation very well."
C
"I wonder why Goodman was vague on the school tax issue when I know he has a clear idea about that."
D
"Hernandez is really going to make this a tight race."
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